Positive start, bearish outlook for global trade in 2023 Ship’s crew

According to UNCTAD, trade growth in the first quarter of 2023 was positive for both goods and services Global trade update Report. However, the UN Trade Organization expects global trade growth to slow in the second quarter due to negative factors such as inflation, financial vulnerabilities, the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions.

“Overall, the outlook for global trade in the second half of 2023 is bearish as negative factors outweigh positive ones,” the report said.

According to the report, trade in goods grew 1.9% in the first quarter of 2023, adding $100 billion, while global trade in services grew 2.8%, adding $50 billion compared to the previous quarter.

The UNCTAD report finds an increase in “friendshoring” and a decrease in trading partner diversification, suggesting that global trade has become more focused on key trading links. It highlights the decreasing trade interdependence between the United States and China and the impact of the war in Ukraine and Brexit on bilateral trade trends.

The report also shows the disparity in trade performance between major economies and regional trade trends, as well as the development of different sectors. Brazil, India, the United States and the European Union saw significant gains in both imports and exports, but quarter-on-quarter trade trends for the major economies were more muted between January and March 2023, with the exception of significant growth in exports from China and India.

International trade grew in all regions except Russia and Central Asia in the first quarter, but growth in East Asia was below average, according to the report. In the first quarter, most regions saw a decrease in trade value with the exception of the Pacific region, North America and Africa, which saw modest growth. Intra-regional trade was similar, with African trade up 3%.

Meanwhile, the energy sector saw rising prices and higher trading values ​​until an 11% quarterly decline between January and March 2023. Other sectors that saw trade increase were agricultural and food products, clothing, chemicals and road vehicles. On the other hand, trade in office and communication equipment and in the transport sector declined, where the downward trend continued into the first quarter of 2023.

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